The New York Jets and New England Patriots will end their disappointing seasons on Sunday in Foxborough in some weather that certainly parallels both clubs’ performances on the year. With heavy winds and likely snow/rain, bettors are staring at the lowest NFL total since 1993 at 30.5.
With poor conditions for the lowest-scoring offense in football and the New England team total possibly riding on the leg of rookie kicker Chad Ryland, should bettors fade the Pats’ team total one more time this season which the Under has hit in 13 of their last 20 games?
I break down the Week 18 NFL odds and offer my free NFL picks for Jets vs. Patriots on Sunday, January 7.
Jets vs Patriots odds
Jets vs Patriots predictions
It’s still a few days out and the weather can change, but this game could have serious NFL weather concerns which include 20-mph winds with gusts up to 30 mph. There is also a great chance of rain/snow which is why the total is approaching the 20s.
It’s also a game that will feature two terrible quarterbacks in Bailey Zappe and Trevor Siemian as well as two teams that will struggle to run the ball.
Zappe and Siemian are not going to march the wet/snowy field with big winds and won’t have much support from their running games either as the New York Jets and Breece Hall will continue to struggle especially vs. the elite New England Patriots run defense and the Pats’ O-line is wearing down as are the legs of Ezekiel Elliott who has just 91 yards on his last 37 carries (three games).
So where does this leave me to find the best market to hit in a game that has the lowest total in 30 years? Let’s hit the Pats’ team total Under 16.5 one last time on the season.
Neither offense projects well in this game, especially in these conditions, but the Pats have lost their run game, DeVante Parker exited last week, Hunter Henry is still out, and New England has the worst kicker in football which could be on display on Sunday.
Rookie kicker Chad Ryland has missed nine of his 24 field goal tries this year and his 62.5 FG% ranks 33rd in the league on the season. These likely poor conditions aren’t going to help and New England will struggle to move the ball in general as Zeke is gassed and the Jets’ coverage is way better than the pass-catching talent in New England.
The Pats rank dead last in scoring on the season at 14.2 points per game and they aren’t exceeding their season average Sunday in awful weather conditions.
My best bet: Patriots team total Under 16.5 (-125 at bet365)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Jets vs Patriots same-game parlay
Patriots team total Under 16.5 pointsSuccessful 2-pt conversion — YesFirst score method — field goal
+3,000 at bet365
Let’s get wild in an ugly game with not many prop markets open. The wind and weather could aid in a miss PAT which would increase the chances of a 2-pt try. Neither of these offenses can sustain long drives and the wind will make it much worse. The wind, however, looks to be going lengthwise on the field which could help with decisions to go for FGs of around 40 to 50 yards. Thirty-to-one for this seems a tad long and the multiplier I’m getting with the team total Under and 2-pt conversion might be very beneficial.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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